Comments on The Thomas Sowell Reader, pages 69-70, One-Stage Thinking.
In our busy lives, how many of us stop to think about the
future results of our current action? How many times have you wished to change a decision because
of unforeseen consequences? The
importance of thinking ahead cannot be overstated, for the lack of it produces
poor choices and even worse outcomes.
The question “What will happen after that”, helps us to
look past the short-term benefits and into the long-term outcomes. Asking this several times will dig even
deeper into the possible future outcomes to expose minor and major
problems.
All the time, people make dreadful decisions based on
current circumstances that are not sustainable. In Zimbabwe, the government issued serious price cutbacks in
June of 2007. The people enjoyed
the bounties of this decree during a short-lived shopping spree. After that, the market halted and
devastation hit. The later benefits
were clearly described:
“Bread,
sugar, and cornmeal, staples of every Zimbabwean’s diet, have vanished…Meat is
virtually nonexistent, even for members of the middle class who have money to
buy it on the black market…Hospital patients are dying for lack of basic
medical supplies.” [1]
What the decision makers failed to consider was that
suppliers usually meet a high demand with a high output but when the demand is
low, the output slows to a low.
The supplier has difficulty functioning with a low demand and forcibly
low prices because his profits may be too low to acquire the materials for his output
or it may not be worth his effort to be a supplier anymore. This is not a confusing principle,
especially for people trained in economics. Yet, this shortsighted decision still happened and for just
that reason, it was short sighted and not properly thought out, if it was
thought out at all beyond the first wave of benefits.
[1] Michael Wines, “Caps on Prices Only Deepen
Zimbabweans’ Misery,” New York Times,
August 2, 2007. Pp. A1, A8.
“By
failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
“Her uncleanness was in her skirts;
she took no thought of her future;
therefore her fall is terrible;
she has no comforter.”
“Without counsel plans fail,
but with many advisers they succeed.”
“…Since through
you we enjoy much peace, and since by your foresight, most excellent Felix,
reforms are being made for this nation,”
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